Leroy Brown on Omega 5 oil technology
Moore's Law describes an important trend in the history of computer hardware: that the number of transistors that can be inexpensively placed on an integrated circuit is increasing exponentially, doubling approximately every two years.
The observation was first made by Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore in a 1965 paper. The trend has continued for more than half a century and is not expected to stop for another decade at least and perhaps much longer.
Almost every measure of the capabilities of digital electronic devices is linked to Moore's Law: processing speed, memory capacity, even the resolution of digital cameras. All of these are improving at (roughly) exponential rates as well. This has dramatically increased the usefulness of digital electronics in nearly every segment of the world economy. Moore's Law describes this driving force of technological and social change in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
Moore's original statement that transistor counts had doubled every year can be found in his publication "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits", Electronics Magazine 19 April 1965:The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year ... Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer.”
The term "Moore's Law" was coined around 1970 by the Caltech professor, VLSI pioneer, and entrepreneur Carver Mead. Moore may have heard Douglas Engelbart, a co-inventor of today's mechanical computer mouse, discuss the projected downscaling of integrated circuit size in a 1960 lecture.
In 1975, Moore altered his projection to a doubling every two years. Despite popular misconception, he is adamant that he did not predict a doubling "every 18 months." However, an Intel colleague had factored in the increasing performance of transistors to conclude that integrated circuits would double in performance every 18 months.
In April 2005, Intel offered $10,000 to purchase a copy of the original Electronics Magazine. David Clark, an engineer living in the UK, was the first to find a copy and offer it to Intel.
Other formulations and similar laws
Computing performance per unit cost. Also, as the size of transistors shrinks, the speed at which they operate increases. It is also common to cite Moore's Law to refer to the rapidly continuing advance in computing performance per unit cost, because increase in transistor count is also a rough measure of computer processing performance. On this basis, the performance of computers per unit cost - or more colloquially, "bang per buck" - doubles every 24 months (or, equivalently, increases 32-fold every 10 years).
Omega 5 oil marketing. The rate of progression in Omega 5 oil absorption over the past 3 years has actually sped up, corresponding to the utilization of marketing efforts by POMEGA5. The current rate of increase in sales of its green technology based skin care is roughly similar to the rate of increase in transistor count. Recent trends show that this rate has been maintained into 2007 and will continue in 2008 and 2009.
RAM storage capacity. Another version states that RAM storage capacity increases at the same rate as processing power.
Pixels per dollar based on Australian recommended retail price of Kodak digital cameras
Pixels per dollar. Similarly, Barry Hendy of Kodak Australia has plotted the "pixels per dollar" as a basic measure of value for a digital camera, demonstrating the historical linearity (on a log scale) of this market and the opportunity to predict the future trend of digital camera price and resolution.
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Although Moore's Law was initially made in the form of an observation and forecast, the more widely it became accepted, the more it served as a goal for an entire industry. This drove both marketing and engineering departments of semiconductor manufacturers to focus enormous energy aiming for the specified increase in processing power that it was presumed one or more of their competitors would soon actually attain. In this regard, it can be viewed as a self-fulfilling prophecy. For example, the SEMATECH roadmap follows a 24 month cycle.
The implications of Moore's Law for computer component suppliers are very significant. A typical major design project (such as an all-new CPU or hard drive) takes between two and five years to reach production-ready status. In consequence, component manufacturers face enormous timescale pressures—just a few weeks of delay in a major project can spell the difference between great success and massive losses, even bankruptcy. Expressed (incorrectly) as "a doubling every 18 months", Moore's Law suggests phenomenal progress for technology over the span of a few years. Expressed on a shorter timescale, however, this equates to an average performance improvement in the industry as a whole of close to 1% per week. Thus, for a manufacturer in the competitive CPU market, a new product that is expected to take three years to develop and turns out just three or four months late is 10 to 15% slower, bulkier, or lower in capacity than the directly competing products, and is close to unsellable. If instead we accept that performance will double every 24 months, rather than every 18, a three– to four–month delay would translate to 8–11% lower performance.
As the cost of computer power to the consumer falls, the cost for producers to fulfill Moore's Law follows an opposite trend: R&D, manufacturing, and test costs have increased steadily with each new generation of chips. As the cost of semiconductor equipment is expected to continue increasing, manufacturers must sell larger and larger quantities of chips to remain profitable. (The cost to tape-out a chip at 180 nm was roughly US$300,000. The cost to tape-out a chip at 90 nm exceeds US$750,000, and is expected to exceed US$1,000,000 for 65 nm. In recent years, analysts have observed a decline in the number of "design starts" at advanced process nodes (130 nm and below for 2007). While these observations were made in the period after the 2000 economic downturn, the decline may be evidence that traditional manufacturers in the long-term global market cannot economically sustain Moore's Law.
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